Grocery Stores Absorbing Higher Turkey Costs Ahead of Thanksgiving
Even though wholesale turkey prices have jumped due to a rise in bird flu cases, shoppers aren’t seeing much change at the checkout. U.S. Department of Agriculture data shows that the cost for stores and retailers is up significantly, yet the advertised prices for turkeys remain about the same as last year.
Experts say many grocery chains are choosing to take on the extra expense themselves. By keeping turkey prices low, they hope to attract more customers who will buy additional items needed for their holiday meals. Overall estimates for Thanksgiving dinner costs suggest the average meal price has stayed fairly stable as well.
The main issue behind the rising costs is a tighter turkey supply. This fall, commercial poultry operations saw another spike in avian flu outbreaks. More than 2 million turkeys have been removed from production this year due to exposure to the virus. Minnesota — the largest turkey-producing state — reported several outbreaks in October.
Michigan State University food economist David Ortega noted that another illness, avian metapneumovirus, is also playing a role. It reduces egg production in hens, making it harder for farmers to rebuild their turkey numbers.
Because of this, the USDA expects overall turkey production to drop to 4.8 million pounds in 2025 — down from 5.1 million pounds the previous year.
With fewer turkeys available, wholesale prices have soared. USDA data shows the price of frozen turkeys — the type most often used for Thanksgiving — has increased about 80% from November 2024 to November 2025, rising from under $1 per pound to over $1.70.
However, prices in stores have not seen a similar rise. Ortega explained that retailers often treat turkeys as a “loss leader” — a product sold at or near a loss to encourage shoppers to come in and spend money on other groceries.
While turkey prices may look stable, the cost of an entire holiday meal varies depending on the data source, with some estimates saying prices are down 5% and others suggesting they’re up nearly 10%.
Food prices overall have been a major topic lately. Political leaders have pointed to budget-friendly Thanksgiving bundles as proof of lower costs, though some of these bundles now include fewer items than before. Ortega emphasized that grocery shoppers are still very concerned about stretching their budgets.
“Families are watching every dollar,” he said. “Grocery stores are working hard to keep customers coming through their doors.”