The country is set to have more than 70 million urban pets compared with less than 40 million children under the age of 4, as young Chinese resist starting new families.
By 2030, China’s pet population is projected to be nearly double that of its young children, according to a recent Goldman Sachs report. As young Chinese adults increasingly delay starting families, the number of urban pets is expected to exceed 70 million by the decade’s end, while the number of children aged 4 and under will shrink to fewer than 40 million, based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics. In contrast, 2017 saw 90 million children in that age group, compared to around 40 million urban pets.
Valerie Zhou, an equity analyst at Goldman Sachs, noted, “We anticipate a significant rise in pet ownership driven by a weaker birth rate outlook and growing pet penetration among the younger generation.”
The report forecasts a 4.2% annual decline in new births through 2030, primarily due to a shrinking population of women aged 20 to 35 and a trend among younger people towards having fewer children.
As of 2023, nearly half of China’s pet owners were between the ages of 23 and 33, according to the China Pet Industry White Paper. With more young Chinese choosing pets over children, the pet food market is expected to grow to $12 billion by 2030. Additionally, the report predicts that cat ownership will surpass dog ownership, as cats generally require less living space.
Global birth rates are declining as women opt for smaller families, and many large countries are experiencing similar trends as the world’s population approaches its peak this century.
China’s population fell for the second consecutive year in 2023, dropping by 2.08 million to 1.41 billion, according to government statistics. Although new marriages increased by 12.4% in 2023, more than half of the population aged 25 to 29 remains unmarried, with late marriages becoming increasingly common.
The report also highlighted that in Japan, the pet population of approximately 20 million was nearly four times the number of children aged 4 and under as of 2022, based on data from the Japan Pet Food Association and Euromonitor.